Probability of falling in love
Out of sheer boredom and inquisitiveness (important attributes in becoming a successful scientist), i set out to work out a formula to finding the probability of falling in love in your own city/locality. This is a purely innocuous exercise for the mind that is meant to be amusing and highly speculative as you shall see. But it does give an interesting insight to the possibilities of falling in love for those lovelorn souls out there.
So here it is:
Maximum number of potential lover = Population size of city/locality X probability of meeting the opposite sex X % of population speaking preferred language X % of population in age range within personal dating age range X % of population within similar education level X % of people you find reasonably attractive
Probability of falling in love per unit time = ( Max. number of potential lovers/Total population) X Rate of being introduced to new people per unit time
My own example:
Population size of city = 4.42 million
Probability of meeting the opposite sex (sex ratio) = 0.5
% of population speaking preferred language at home = 30% (English-speaking + some mandarin-speaking)
Personal dating range = 10yrs
% of population in age range within personal dating range = 15%
% of population within similar education level = 22.8% (Polytechnic + University + Other Diplomas)
% of people i find reasonably attractive = 0.5
Rate of being introduced to new people per yr = 10
Probability of falling in love per year = (4420000x0.5x0.3x0.15x0.228x0.5)/(4420000) x 10
= 0.02565
= 2.565% per year
In other words, there is a chance that i will fall in love with 2 females for every 100 people i'm introduced to within a year! And this is using a very conservative estimate! For example, i can't even stand most undergraduates in the first place, let alone others... Nevertheless, the maximum number of potential lovers is a very useful number. It gives you a good measure of potential mates out there and you can prepare accordingly to target this specific group of people to meet!
There are, of course, numerous assumptions that i have to make in order for this formula to work. Once you understand these assumptions, you can tweak the formula accordingly to tailor for your personal needs.
Assumptions:
1) You spend 100% of your time in your city, making them your only source of interaction with people.
2) You are attracted to only one single sex and not both at the same time.
3) You are most likely to fall in love with someone you can communicate well with. The indirect measure of this is by the language preferably spoken and also by sharing similar education background.
4) Differences in religious and racial backgrounds are not put into consideration. To include them as factors, multiply the maximum number of potential lovers by the percentage of preferred race or religion in the population.
5) There are people out there that you find reasonably attractive.
6) You can fall in love with the same person twice or more.
There are other variables that i may have overlooked at this wee hour of night, so this formula is currently just a prototype. Also, there are potentially many ways to make it more accurate by narrowing and adding more variables to be considered. The sampling techniques can be further refined as well. So do try it out and feedback to me!
This is my best use of my knowledge in probability and statistics so far!!! For once i found a fun use in mathematics!


1 Comments:
u were up till so late last nite? i was dead tired
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